In this podcast, Heidi Finch, who covers the Europe epoxy market, and fellow senior editor Tarun Raizada, who covers the US epoxy market, recap on what has been a very volatile and challenging H1, in particular due to unsettled US-Iran geopolitics and discuss possible expectations for the H2.

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• In the US, higher feedstock costs, reduced Asian imports, due to the ME war, along with tariffs supported prices in H1, while demand remained largely flat. 
• Europe prices surged during Q2, due to the ME induced war cost impacts and more domestic sourcing due to import supply chain jitters, although demand remained low
• Geopolitical uncertainty makes for a hazy H2 for both regions, managing headwinds the focus, no recovery in sight

-          European chemical profits rose sharply in Q2

-          Producers upgrade full-year earnings forecasts

-          Q2 gains driven by conflict-led pricing, margins

-          Demand weak across key sectors

-          Little momentum seen after Q2 uplift

-          Outlook clouded by geopolitical uncertainty

-          Rhine drought threatens logistics and supply

-          More force majeures possible in Europe

• Upstream values remain a key driver of petrochemical price direction
• Limited vessel availability, high freight costs constrain Asia PET resin exports
• ICIS remains cautiously optimistic on PET resin supply-demand fundamentals

• European storage levels below last year
• Germany faces particularly low inventories
• Middle East disruption limits LNG availability
• Europe competing with Asia for cargoes
• Gas prices likely to remain elevated
• Demand destruction may soften impact of low storage levels
• LNG market outlook shifts from surplus to deficit
• Chemical companies urged to plan for rising energy insecurity
• Diesel and petroleum increasingly short globally
• Risk that US may place export ban on energy products, diesel and petroleum 

• Oil prices rise towards $90/barrel
• Strait of Hormuz disruption hits energy flows again
• Bab el Mandeb Strait blockade risk grows, threatening access to the Red Sea and Suez Canal
• European gas stocks remain vulnerable
• Rhine low water disrupts logistics
• Chemical supply chains face pressure in Europe
• Demand weakness limits market reaction 
• Smartphone sales fall sharply
• Rising costs drive demand destruction

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

• Prolonged disruption could trigger a major supply shock
• Russian refinery outages are tightening fuel product supplies
• Chemical markets remain cautious despite rising crude prices
• Higher energy costs could fuel inflation and demand weakness
• Global oil inventories and reserves continue to decline
• China’s slowdown is weighing on petrochemical demand
• Chemical buyers are delaying purchases amid uncertainty
• Demand destruction may limit chemical price increases
• Companies should strengthen resilience against market shocks

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

• Maersk, Hapag-LLoyd reopen one Gemini service through the Suez Canal
• China becomes increasingly self-sufficiency in chemicals
• Switches from net importer to exporter for some important products
• Growth of chemicals post-2030 could be focussed in megasites with low carbon production linked to CCS/U (carbon capture and storage/utilization)
• US ethane prices have fallen, giving US producers more of a competitive advantage
• Introduction of US-EU trade deal will see tariffs on many US chemical imports fall from 6.5% to zero

Note – this podcast was recorded on 7 July, 2026

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior consultant John Richardson and ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown.

In this episode, ICIS Europe BD editor Melissa Hurley discusses the latest market developments and outlook with Ai Teng Lim (Asia), Elaine Zhang (China), and senior BD analysts Gawaine Preston (Europe) and Ann Sun (Asia).

• CFR northeast Asia BD prices have fallen significantly from March peak levels as expected supply shock failed to materialise; heavier-than-expected downstream demand losses seen
• China market also experienced rapid price decline; H2 focus shifts from supply recovery to demand absorption: "The key question is no longer whether supply recovers — it's whether demand can absorb it." - Senior BD Analyst Ann Sun 
• Asia and China remain the key balancing markets, expected to absorb surplus BD exports from Europe and the US
• Prices may face further near-term weakness before stabilising, while the timing of new Asian capacity additions remains the biggest uncertainty for the market
• US July BD contracts also lower on improved supply and weaker global pricing

Focus podcast by Ai Teng Lim, Elaine Zhang, Gawaine Preston, Ann Sun and Melissa Hurley. Additional reporting by Preeti Sriram.

-          High levels of stress but a resolve to adapt to conflict conditions 

-          Very difficult operating environment with displaced population

-          Maintaining stock levels is a key challenge

-          Hazardous material moved to a warehouse out of Beirut and away from other high-risk zones 

-          Back-up office created to allow work to continue during times of high conflict

-          Less transport by sea through port of Beirut and more via land crossings to Syria

-          Impossible to get insurance coverage for logistics in conflict zones

-          Shift of commercial terms to cash in advance before delivery

-          Banking system has become very primitive

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Dany Njeim, CEO of RN Chemicals, based in Lebanon and Italy and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

In this Q2 episode of the Acetone and Derivatives podcast, ICIS experts unpack the key drivers across phenol, acetone, BPA, epoxy and polycarbonate, and explore a cautious, uncertain outlook for Q3 amid weak demand, ample supply and ongoing global volatility.

MMA markets editor Mathew Jolin-Beech is joined by Acetone and phenol editor Jane Gibson, Heidi Finch senior editor for the European BPA and epoxy resins, Sam Lovatt on PC, and Michele Bossi - analyst for the chain.

• China chemicals production has fallen, but exports are soaring
• Inventory levels in China are much higher than people suspected
• Higher prices mean that this is now being exported
• China operators still run despite poor economics, domestic demand
• They have been stockpiling, now selling this inventory
• May data confirm the trend is continuing
• 20% of global olefins supply has been disrupted by the Middle East war
• 45% of Asia ethylene supply outside of China was offline in April
• Record capacity additions mean oversupply will continue for 5-10 years
• From 2030 China will add less new capacity

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior polyolefins analyst James Wilson and ICIS senior consultant John Richardson.

Glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye, acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech and oxo alcohols analyst Gawaine Preston about current market conditions and expectations for the near future.

• Customers increasingly want to take “Europe for Europe” approach to ensure security of supply
• Chemical industry is moving from global to regional structure, and this will help Velogy in an oversupplied world
• Action needed at EU and national level to protect Europe chemicals and industrial backbone from subsidised imports
• Being a mid-sized €2.5 billion sales company allows Velogy to act fast
• Strong balance, without debt, gives Velogy a head start
• Adding SABIC assets will increase sales to around €8 billion
• SABIC acquisition expected to close in Q4 2026
• Parent group AEQUITA is not a typical private equity fund with investors expecting an exit/return within a few years
• Five partners own the group, with experience in troubled industrial sectors such as automotive
• After SABIC assets are added there are no plans for closures, but some cost savings in central functions possible

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Richard Roudeix, CEO of Velogy and Robert Roiger, Chief Transformation Officer at Velogy and Chief Operating Officer at AEQUITA.

• Chemical supply chains are becoming more flexible
• Supply reliability and diversification are now key competitive advantages
• To thrive distributors need to diversify supply chains, adopt a more ‘local for local’ approach
• Distributors and producers need to focus on financial stability of their suppliers and customers
• After Hormuz, other global trade chokepoints could be weaponized
• If oil prices rise to $150/barrel, interest rates may rise to 5-10%
• High interest rates will cause chemical industry bankruptcies

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Dorothee Arns, director general of the European Association of Chemical Distributors (Fecc) and  Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

Click here to register for the 19 June joint Fecc/ICIS CEO round tables mentioned during the podcast. 

-          Further delays to reopening of Strait of Hormuz could see oil prices rise to $140–150/bbl

-          Higher oil would drive panic buying then sharp demand destruction as downstream customers cannot absorb costs 

-          Markets are already “extremely cautious and hand to mouth”, reflecting uncertainty over timing of any resolution 

-          Chemical markets are most price-volatile since 2008

-          Demand is weakening due to inflation, higher interest rates and consumer pressure, hitting purchasing power

-          Prolonged conflict risks inventory depletion, raising likelihood of further price shocks in oil and petrochemicals 

-          China has increased exports sharply (up ~40% year on year), helping offset supply gaps but pressuring global margins 

-          Asia faces the most acute supply disruption, with plant shutdowns and reduced operating rates due to feedstock shortages 

-          Structural risks are rising, including plant closures and bankruptcies, particularly where high costs meet weak demand 

-          Industry may be entering a “global reset”, driven by overcapacity, weak demand and sustained geopolitical disruption

With Chinese exports increasingly asserting a greater presence in Asia as an impact of the Mideast conflict, they discuss what this may mean for the immediate future of these products. 

• Unprecedented increase in Chinese olefin exports in March, April pressure markets amid demand drop-off
• PVC export markets contend with intensifying Chinese carbide PVC supply competition amid India monsoon season
• Temporary nature of Chinese exports called into question

• Accumulated inventories in Mar-Apr deter buying as alternative feedstock routes add supply pressure
• Chinese spot activity gains traction as regional producers grapple with elevated costs
• Seasonal June lull, Mideast conflict, weak downstream confidence keep sentiment pessimistic

They also explored the cost difference and fundamental divergence between China and the rest of Asia.

-          Recruitment practices have sharpened as market conditions have become tougher 

-          Less roles on the market, but now greater clarity on return on investment (ROI)

-          Better for companies and recruits to have more specifics on roles

-          A lot of commercial roles still available 

-          Operational roles in Europe may be for efficiency projects/turnarounds/closing sites

-          Asia operational roles focus on new plants or expansions

-          A lot of M&A, business transformation roles

-          Most successful hires are comfortable with ambiguity, flexible on geography

-          Just say “Yes!” to new roles within your own company or externally to gain experience

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Natasha Klymczuk,
managing director and founder of Kelham Partners. 

Spot price trends across the oxo‑alcohols chain are assessed as stable to softer in May compared with April, as weaker buying interest and cautious purchasing behaviour offset the impact of restricted supply and upstream volatility

Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter, Marion Boakye,  joins acrylate esters editor, Mathew Jolin-Beech, and glycol ethers editor, Cameron Birch, to discuss current conditions along the oxo-alcohols value chain.

Helen McGeough: International players remain committed to Europe long term, investing in rPET and polyolefins despite weak demand, while flagging certification complexity and the growing role of EPR-driven demand globally.

Mia McLachlan: Polyolefins markets show cautious optimism, with Middle East disruption boosting recycler demand but exposing LDPE capacity shortages and highlighting the gap to meet 2030 PPWR targets.

Nazif Nazmul: Chemical recycling faces a worsening mismatch between sustainability targets and financial backing, with weak offtake commitments and insolvencies (e.g. Plastics Energy) signalling risk to capacity growth.

Carolina Perujo Holland: Textile recycling is emerging but complex, with major regulatory drivers (WFD, EPR, Ecodesign) and challenges in sorting, traceability and economics requiring strong value-chain collaboration.

Matt Tudball: rPET outlook is highly uncertain, with tight bale supply, volatile virgin PET prices and possible summer feedstock shortages, but stronger buyer–seller relationships are stabilising the market.

Sam Lovatt: Rising virgin polyolefin prices are supporting recycled markets, but recyclers cannot fully pass through increases due to cost-sensitive end uses, limiting margin recovery and demand resilience.

-          If war drags on, danger of two-tier food economy developing with lower tier suffering shortages

-          Poorer countries may be priced out of the fertilizer market

-          Food impact will be seen later this year and into 2027

-          Unique situation because fertilizer supply is very concentrated around the Strait of Hormuz, so the effect is amplified

-          Global ammonia, sulphur markets heavily impacted by the Iran war

-          Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) applies carbon tax on EU imports  

-          It will replace free allocations under Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)

-          As imports become more expensive, downstream sectors argue they suffer raised raw material costs

-          Proposal to suspend CBAM on fertilizers
 
In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS ammonia reporter Sylvia Tranganida, ICIS ammonia analyst Bee Lin Chow, ICIS sulphur reporter Manuja Pandey, ICIS phosphatic fertilizer reporter Chris Vlachopoulos and ICIS data analyst Grégoire Ladouce. 

-          Dubai’s Jebel Ali port is within the Strait of Hormuz and is unable to export

-          Other ports in Oman and Saudi Arabia cannot handle large volumes, or very hazardous products

-          Each week of Strait closure will add one month of post-war disruption when it finally reopens 

-          Companies would willingly pay a toll to resume use of Strait of Hormuz

-          UAE inflation, unemployment is rising

-          Servochem can only export 20% of usual pre-war levels

-          Customers are slowing production as costs rise and demand is uncertain

-          “We have lost 2026”

-          Raw material and shipping costs have spiked

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Yogesh Dodani, director at Dubai-based chemical distributor and manufacturer Servochem.  

• Iran war pushed EU to accelerate moves on cutting energy costs
• Now up to member states to implement cost cutting measures
• Positive moves on Emissions Trading System (ETS)
• Fast-tracking for anti-dumping duties (ADDs) is welcome
• Brussels has finally moved from words to action
• Update to Reach regulation has been halted
• New ETS structure to be revealed on July 15. Force majeure option would be welcome
• War effect will last throughout 2026 and likely into 2027
• Companies in Europe are delaying maintenance as demand has risen
• Customers and producers are rethinking 100% globalised business models, seek to make supply chains more robust
• Northern China can access Russian crude, South more reliant on Middle East
• Expect slump in consumer spending, rising rates of savings in Europe, demand destruction later in the year
• Permanent plant closures, M&A is creating a strong European industry
• AEQUITA, Borouge International, Moeve-Galp merger will create Europe-based powerhouses

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Cefic director general Marco Mensink and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

China has traditionally not been a net exporter of PE, but weakening domestic demand and limited ability to clear material domestically are prompting producers to look overseas, with SEA increasingly viewed as a potential growth market.

Polypropylene (PP) producers in China and SEA are facing similar challenges, struggling to pass on higher costs as end users have so far resisted price increases in April. While some market participants expect greater acceptance of higher prices from June onwards, converters are considering run rate reductions if margin pressure persists.

In this podcast, Senior Editors Izham Ahmad and Jackie Wong discuss evolving supply‑side strategies, demand conditions following an earlier wave of panic buying, and expectations for potential demand easing in the near term.

• Depleting inventories by end‑May may mark a turning point for demand recovery
• Shipping constraints and geopolitical risks sharpen focus on shorter‑haul, lower‑risk cargoes
• Downstream uptake slows after panic buying, market players flag potential demand easing

This inevitably raises questions about whether end-industry companies can withstand such immense price pressure, what their current countermeasures are, and how these dynamics may feed back into upstream markets.

In this podcast, Asian Senior Aromatics Analysts Jenny Yi, Jimmy Zhang, and Yoland Chen discuss how the Middle East conflict is affecting demand across China's aromatics end-use industries and share their views on near- and medium-term implications.

The 38th China International Plastics & Rubber Industry Exhibition (Chinaplas) - the world's leading trade fair for the sector - is taking place from April 21 to 24 April in Shanghai, China. ICIS held extensive discussions with market participants attending the event, with key insights shared in today's podcast.

• End-use industry performance is mixed: nylon, PET resin demand grows, home appliance demand slows, textile and clothing demand may decline
• ABS demand growth in China is expected to be lower this year than in 2025, while EPS and PS demand is forecast to slow in 2026 before rebounding in 2027
• China's polyester fiber consumption and production are set to decline this year, while PET resin demand remains strong, prompting integrated producers to prioritize PET resin output

-          43 force majeures in Middle East and Asia, Europe prices hitting record highs

-          Sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude oil stored on ships is nearly depleted, exposing markets to greater shortages 

-          5-10% of global oil and gas supply is unavailable

-          Prepare for demand destruction as global economy adapts to shortages

-          Food price inflation likely to hurt poorer nations most, but all economies will suffer

-          Inflation may spike to 5-10% as supply shortages impact downstream consumer markets

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

With a challenging two months since the start of the US-Iran war pushing prices up dramatically and tightening the global supply chain, the European markets have been hit hard. However, there are some signs that prices are starting to stabilize, even if supply remains tight and prices high.

Acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye and glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch about how each sector has been hit and impacted by the war.

• PET thermoform recycling lags far behind bottles
• PPWR demands proven, scalable recycling solutions
• Tray‑to‑tray recycling is achievable, not theoretical
• Functional barriers critical for food‑contact approval
• Packers and retailers remain key bottleneck
• Early action and enforcement needed to meet targets

In this podcast, urea editor Deepika Thapliyal, sulphur editor Manuja Pandey, phosphates editor Chris Vlachopoulos, sulphuric acid editor Andy Hemphill and ammonia editor Sylvia Traganida discuss the latest market developments.

·       Urea prices jump on tight availability, drop in demand on low affordability

·       Sulphur supply tightness leads to two-tier market for industrial users and fertilizer producers

·       China export ban of sulphuric acid pushes prices to record highs

·       Concerns arise in Europe on farmer affordability leading to phosphates demand destruction

·       Lack of ammonia availability from the Middle East pushes Asian prices up and makes buyers look eastward for product 

• Innovation is essential for differentiation, long‑term growth and sustainability, not just short‑term commercial success
• Chemical companies must continue investing in R&D during uncertain periods rather than adopting a “stop‑and‑go” approach
• Sustainability‑driven innovation is increasingly central to business resilience, customer trust and regulatory compliance
• Open innovation and partnerships with customers, suppliers, academics and startups are becoming more important than internal R&D alone
• Digitalisation and AI can help structure vast amounts of unstructured data and support faster, more informed decision‑making
• Product‑level carbon transparency and credible sustainability data are emerging as competitive necessities
• New materials enabling recyclability – such as debondable adhesives – illustrate how innovation can link performance and circularity
• Shifts away from fossil feedstocks towards recycling, renewable raw materials and CO2 utilisation will accelerate over the next decade
• Regionalisation of supply chains and circular economy solutions are likely to gain momentum amid geopolitical fragmentation
• Entering innovation awards helps companies benchmark progress, gain credibility and increase the visibility of their innovations

Enter the ICIS Innovation Awards! Deadline 12 June. 

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Innovation awards judges Alessia Ielo, global sustainable solutions manager for Brenntag; Denis Bortzmeyer, scientific director for open innovation at Arkema and Eric de Deckere, executive director innovation at Cefic (European Chemical Industry Council). 

Downstream demand and end-use consumption, however, are facing greater uncertainties as the geopolitical tensions weaken the global economic outlook, which could cloud the upside potential of propylene.

In this podcast, ICIS editors Seymour Chenxia and Joy Foo, together with ICIS senior analyst Joey Zhou, Doris He and Lillian Ren revisit Asian propylene price trends since the Middle East conflicts, discuss price forecast, supply/demand conditions and outlook and trade flow changes. 

-          Restarting chemical plants is complex and requires external technical experts who will be in short supply

-          Plant restarts require huge amounts of energy, which will overstretch power networks if multiple plants try to fire up

-          Logistics logjams will add further delays to restart plans

-          Personnel are no longer on site and will have to return

-          It will take 12-18 months for Middle East production to ramp up

-          Europe and Asia will be lucky to receive Middle East trade flows by the end of the year 

-          Europe’s chemical industry could see a renaissance if industrial customers return to local sourcing

-          Europe is becoming cost-competitive again

Asia

• Asian butadiene output losses could to deepen into April and beyond, as the ongoing Middle East conflict shows no sign of easing, limiting any near‑term recovery in regional BD production.
• Synthetic rubber producers considering further production cuts in April given the ongoing tight supply and higher BD prices

Europe

• Soaring naphtha costs pushed BD producer margins negative in March, resulting in a sharp triple‑digit rise in the April contract price - up 50% month-on-month 
• Export prices surged around 80% month on month in March
• Tight availability amid planned BD/cracker turnarounds making it challenging to export volumes towards Asia

US market

• US BD prices also rising, but spot export supply remains tight due to outages and turnarounds

Glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye and acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech about market conditions and expectations for the near future.

·       Supply disruptions in Asia and the need to source material may reduce flows to Europe

·       China is better-equipped to deal with the Strait of Hormuz closure than many of its neighbours

·       The crisis could prompt Asia Pacific players to re-evaluate their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern feedstocks

·       The US chemical industry is comparatively insulated and profiting from the turmoil: with abundant domestic oil, gas and cheap ethane

·       Economic sentiment is weakening as conflict-driven costs ripple through the global economy

With about 60% of Asia’s naphtha imports typically sourced from the Middle East, the region remains vulnerable to widespread cracker run‑rate cuts and temporary shutdowns, with the effect cascading through the ethylene (C2) value chain.

• Naphtha shortages force Asia producers to cut C2, PE op rates
• Market participants look to China for alternative SM supply amid tightening availability
• PVC margins hold firm on adequate inventories, steady downstream demand

This is the second installment of a two-part podcast.

In part one, ICIS senior editors Josh Quah and Izham Ahmad examine how tightening feedstock availability is pressuring cracker operating rates and reshaping sentiment in the C2 and polyethylene (PE) markets.

In part two, ICIS senior editor Luffy Wu and ICIS market analyst Jonathan Chou discuss how the disruption is filtering downstream into the styrene monomer (SM) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets, and what participants can expect in the weeks ahead.

In part one of this podcast, market editors Josh Quah and Izham Ahmad examine how tightening feedstock availability is pressuring cracker operating rates and reshaping sentiment in the ethylene (C2) and polyethylene (PE) markets.

In part two, market editors Luffy Wu and Jonathan Chou discuss how the disruption is filtering downstream into the styrene monomer (SM) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets, and what participants can expect in the weeks ahead.

Key takeaways

• Methanol shock drives regional divergence
  Supply exposure explains the widening price gap: China’s coal‑based methanol production has cushioned the shock, while import‑dependent markets in Northeast and Southeast Asia have seen faster and sharper price spikes.
• Acetic acid rally is cost‑push, not demand‑led
  In China, acetic acid prices have lagged methanol as supply remains resilient and margins stay positive; outside China, higher offers linked to methanol are running into resistance from weak downstream demand—especially in VAM.
• Asia ex‑China faces limited outlets as India demand strains
  Spot volumes freed up by VAM run cuts have flowed into India, but panic buying is fading, gas curtailments are weighing on downstream demand, and narrowing China–India arbitrage raises the risk of broader run‑rate adjustments.

• Indirect impact of virgin polymer price rises
• Reaction from recycled market participants 
• How rising fuel costs factor into recycled markets
• Concerns about higher energy and production costs
• Longer-term impact of the conflict on consumer spending

-          Europe naphtha markets much less dependent on Middle East than Asia

-          Europe only gets 30% of its crude from the Middle East compared to 60% for Asia

-          Opening of INEOS Project ONE ethane-based cracker may force closure of naphtha-fed crackers

-          Oil product markets have tightened faster than crude

-          Margins for oil refineries which can access crude oil are rising 

-          Alternatives to bypass Strait of Hormuz limited – maximum 5 million barrels/day compared to 20 million barrels/day before the conflict 

-          ICIS forecasts crude oil demand growth will plateau from 2028

-          Petrochemicals, aviation fuel will drive demand growth

-          Most advantaged refineries combine good feedstock supply, flexibility and market access

-          Other refineries will have to adopt innovative strategies to survive and thrive

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior analysts David Jorbenaze and Paolo Scafetta.  

The latest attacks are set to cripple the market as the hit on QatarEnergy's Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility is set to keep 2m tonnes of base oils offline for a minimum of a year.

The ICIS Base oils team looked at the key drivers and what to watch out for next.

Amanda Hay, Lucas Hall, Sophie Udubasceanu, Sam Wright, Michael Connolly, Michelle Liew, Olivia Dai and Whitney Shi discuss the global outlook for base oils.

Additional reporting by Jean Zou and Lynn Tan

-          Chemical industry has relied for decades on global supply chains

-          Asia crackers forced to cut operating rates as Middle East raw materials dry up

-          “Just in time” stocks need to be increased to “Just in case”

-          CEOs may rethink, consider more local, less vulnerable supply chain options

-          World may regroup into three trading zones focussed on Americas, China/Asia, Europe

-          High levels of debt will make companies much more cautious

-          Trading, pricing of chemicals has become very complicated in chaotic upstream environment

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

The team examines how the duties are reshaping trade flows, the continued weakness in Europe ABS demand, the shifting strategies among Asian producers, and the indirect risks from rising geopolitical tensions on upstream styrene costs and freight routes.

• European Commission confirmed definitive anti-dumping duties on 13 February 2026
• Taiwan loses further European market share; China sees limited but growing opportunities
• European demand remains subdued; buyers reassess import options
• Asia sees seasonal demand improvement but lower overall 2026 growth expectations
• US–Iran tensions may tighten styrene supply and extend import lead times for ABS and upstream styrene

• US-Iran conflict disrupts Strait of Hormuz, preventing Middle East crude exports
• Asian producers adjust run rates to manage depleting naphtha inventories
• Middle East refiners face pressure to export amid limited product containment

-          Crude oil spike cushioned by reserves, “wait and see” attitude

-          Duration of war is the key to impact on all commodities

-          Oil prices could spike to triple figures, trigger talks to reopen Strait of Hormuz

-          Qatari LNG plant is biggest in the world and has been shut down

-          Around 20% of global LNG supply has been cut off 

-          Power, carbon prices see changed dynamics

-          Record high sulphur prices may now move even higher

-          Other fertilizer prices rising, urea faces particular challenges

-          Supply shock ahead of planting season will pressure farmers

-          Food prices likely to rise

-          Chemical producers may struggle to pass on price hikes, pressuring margins

-          Lack of Middle East chemicals and feedstocks already hurting Asia, may impact Europe

-          Europe chemicals could gain if local customers return to more local sourcing during war

Navigate to 01:24 for crude oil commentary, 09:43 for natural gas, 17:43 for power, 23:18 for fertilizers and 37:00 for chemicals.

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown, ICIS head of oil markets Ajay Parmar, ICIS gas editor Ed Cox, ICIS power editor Andrea Battaglia, Andy Hemphill and Deepika Thapliyal from the ICIS fertilizer team and Tom  Brown, ICIS Insight editor.  

The overlying sentiment is one where the oleochemicals prices will be under upward pressure regardless of whether demand is strong enough to support the price hikes, given the compressed margins from escalating upstream costs and spike in freight costs.

In this podcast, ICIS senior editor Helen Yan breaks down the impact of the Iran war and escalating military conflict in the Middle East on the Asian oleochemicals markets.

• Upstream CPO, PKO prices have risen amid the escalating tensions in the Middle East
• Glycerine, fatty alcohols mid-cuts C12-14 spot prices revised up on higher upstream CPO, PKO costs
• Players are monitoring the volatile situation, with buyers largely adopting a prudent stance

• Light–heavy grade spreads in Group II narrow sharply
• New capacities in Singapore, India and Saudi Arabia expected to intensify competition
• China’s structural export growth and evolving US–India trade relations to influence future trade flows

Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter, Marion Boakye,  joins acrylate esters editor, Mathew Jolin-Beech, and glycol ethers editor, Cameron Birch, to discuss current conditions along the oxo-alcohols value chain.

Key topics covered include:

• Mass balance accounting rules and how the final version differs from the draft SUPD implementing act
• The role of competition with other circular plastic routes and how it might shape chemical recycling's future
• What success looks like for chemical recycling in 2026

ICIS assesses more than 100 grades throughout the circular plastic value chain globally – from waste bales through to pellets. This includes recycled polyethylene (R-PE), recycled PET (R-PET), R-PP, mixed plastic waste, agglomerates, pyrolysis oil and bio-naphtha.  For more information on ICIS’ recycled plastic products, please contact the ICIS recycling team at recycling@icis.com

-          25 UK chemicals closures since 2021, country now only has one cracker

-          Massive social impact of closures, often in deprived areas

-          UK no longer produces some critical chemicals

-          Lost UK chemical production could reach 55-60% from 2021 levels

-          UK needs much more powerful government policy shift to save industry

-          UK chemicals sees toughest business environment for many years

-          Slight pick up expected in 2026

-          For 2026, chemicals output forecast to contract in US, tepid growth in Europe, China

-          India forecast 7% in chemicals output for 2026

-          More protection needed against China, which has moved up the chemicals value chain and subsidises production

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Stephen Elliott, CEO of the UK Chemical Industries Association and ICIS market development director John Richardson.

In this podcast, European ACN editor Nicole Simpson speaks to global ammonia editor Sylvia Tranganida about the likely outlook for the markets. 

·       European ACN market operating at reduced rates as European industry in decline

·       Russian ACN imports virtually gone following new EU sanctions in December 

·       China’s ACN overcapacity is growing but infrastructure for exports is lacking 

·       ACN demand set to remain soft, well served by existing contracts 

·       CBAM creating discontent in ammonia market 

·       Ammonia imports into Europe slowing after CBAM enforced

·       Tight supply in global ammonia market 

·       Natural gas supply a concern for ammonia players 

·       Ammonia demand set to pick up in spring for seasonal reasons

• Global PET and polyester overcapacity
• Recycling as both challenge and opportunity 
• EU regulation and uncertainty 
• Imports and trade impacts 
• Emerging sustainability drivers across markets 
• Rapid developments in Asia’s recycling landscape

-          New Antwerp meeting of industry leaders and EU leaders aims to speed up moves to save chemicals and other heavy industry

-          Industry is in crisis and action is required right now to stop further deindustrialisation 

-          EU must move to a federal structure to allow for swift decision-making and more powerful tools to support it

-          Coalition of the willing to get action without full consensus

-          Rising tide of regulation needs to be reversed

-          Criticism of member states for “gold-plating” EU regulations, adding new rules at national level

-          Proper pan-European energy market is required

-          Podcast was recorded on Thursday 12 February

Jane Gibson covering the Acetone and phenol editor Jane Gibson is joined by Mat Jolin-Beech covering MMA, Heidi Finch senior editor covering the European BPA and epoxy resins, Sam Lovatt covering PC and Michele Bossi - analyst for the chain.

• The Single Use Plastic Directive (SUPD) implementing act which sets out the mass balance approach for chemically recycled PET
• End of Waste Status for pyrolysis oil and the Winter Package
• The need for investment in chemical recycling regardless of regulatory clarity
• The volume of recycled material needed for food-contact applications by 2030 and 2040
• Chemical recycling demand through to 2030

-          Big jump in US purchasing manager indices (PMIs) with Europe and China moving in the right direction

-          New report by Roland Berger highlights Europe’s chemicals crisis

-          Rising costs, poor demand, continue to pressurise margins

-          New Antwerp Declaration expected next week 

-          Storms, cold weather bring chaos to Europe, disrupting logistics

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

In this latest podcast, senior editors Helen Yan, Eashani Chavda and Lucas Hall and joins markets editor Nazif Nazmul to share the latest developments and expectations ahead of the Palm and Lauric Oils Conference (POC) being held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from 9-11 February.

• Asia crude glycerine up on Indonesia export tax hike to 10%
• Adequate US oleochemical supply catering to relatively soft demand
• Europe fatty alcohols C12-14 spot prices rise by double-digits, bolstered by PKO spikes

-          Cost inflation impacting margins for distributors – logistics, energy, labor, working capital 

-          Tougher to pass price increases to customers

-          Intense competition from cheap imports into Europe

-          Economic uncertainty affecting customer confidence

-          New business models needed as the old global world order changes 

-          Distributors, being less asset-heavy, are well placed to adapt to changing trade flows and tariffs

-          Unstable tariff regimes are bad for demand due to the uncertainty they create

-          Tariffs can cause a whiplash as flows redirected to other regions

• No political signs suggest PPWR will be delayed or weakened
• PPWR roles and responsibilities are complex and often misunderstood
• Lack of clarity around regulatory details creats uncertainty for industry
• Companies must act now despite unknowns, especially ahead of 2026 deadlines
• Recyclability and recycled content will be central to future requirements

In this chemical podcast, Asia ACN editors Seymour Chenxia and Corey Chew take a look at recent China and broader Asian ACN market movements, discuss the short-term forecast, supply-demand fundamentals and trade flow outlook for 2026.

• NE Asia ACN prices decline on tepid demand and overcapacity in Jan
• Short-term pressure may ease as negative margins weigh on run rates
• Exports emerge as the long-term option to mitigate China oversupply

In this podcast, Heidi Finch who covers the Europe epoxy market and fellow senior editor Tarun Raizada who covers the US epoxy market share insights on tariff uncertainty, ongoing demand and margin concerns in a troubled climate.

• Tariff and trade haze continue to cast shadows over the epoxy markets in both Europe and the US.*
• Demand remains fragile and cautious across regions, with limited restocking activity in Q1, no meaningful recovery expected in the first half of the year, some uplift hopes for H2.
• Pricing tension persists, amid margin concerns vs soft market conditions
• Europe bears the brunt of competition from South Korea,  due to EU anti‑dumping exemptions
• Possible EU review of anti‑dumping duties/SK ADD exemption could potentially level out the playing field

*Since the podcast recording, Trump has called off his 10% tariff threat from 1 February on some EU countries over the Greenland dispute  following a productive meeting with  NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

Podcast editing: Zubair Adam

·         Trump’s tariff swings deepen uncertainty for global chemical trade

·         EU–US deal stalls, exposing fragile trade negotiation structures

·         Davos leaders warn of weakening global institutions and alliances

·         China presents itself as stabilising force amid shifting geopolitics

·         Trade deals no longer guarantee protection from sudden policy shocks

·         Tariff uncertainty threatens investment, planning and market confidence

·         Chemicals growth areas include defence, recycling and water technologies

·         Chemicals may need to develop strong regional champions

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

-          For 2026 global oil markets are in the largest period of oversupply we have ever seen

-          Oversupply forecast by ICIS at 3 million barrels/day out of a roughly 100 million barrels/day market

-          China oil demand growth has slowed drastically thanks to slowing economy and transition to electric vehicles

-          OPEC is increasing supply, unwinding previous cuts

-          Around 20% of global oil supplies pass through Strait of Hormuz so closing it could push prices above $100/barrel. 

-          End Q1/early Q2 Brent crude oil prices could decline under $60/barrel as fundamentals of oversupply take over from geopolitical concerns

-          Overall prices could be 15% lower than in 2025, ICIS forecasts

-          China-driven chemicals oversupply will persist in 2026

-          Developing world outside China may become a driver of chemicals demand

-          SABIC’s petrochemical sale ushers in new era of ownership by turnaround investors

 In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS market development director John Richardson, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Ajay Parmar, head of oil markets for ICIS.  

• EU chemicals regulation needs ambitious reform, not tinkering at the edges
• Chemical companies continue to close operations in Europe, partly driven by regulatory costs
• Expect a review of Reach regulation and “one substance one assessment” part of the Chemicals Strategy for Sustainability in 2026
• Sustainability reporting requirements are being watered down
• Proposed changes to the EU Waste Framework Directive will impact chemical recycling sector
• Risk of EU moving towards hazard-based assessments, rather than risk
• Restriction of lead in ammunition could stifle defence sector
• Move away from international rule of law means new approaches needed

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Gerard McElwee and Peter Sellar from Squire Patton Boggs, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

For 2026, many remain sceptical surrounding the prospect of demand recovery tied in part to the potential of infrastructure spending and any resolution to ongoing geopolitical issues.

Glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye and acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech about market conditions and expectations for the near future.

• Risk of bankruptcies, high energy costs and price volatility to persist to 2027
• New recycling capacities focused on packaging at the expense of the automotive and construction sector despite upcoming recycled content targets
• How imports into the EU remain essential in the short-term 
• Plus some calls to action for Europe’s recycling industry

• Middle East producers plan a major new capacity wave after 2030, 
• Long‑term strategy centres on monetising hydrocarbons beyond 2030
• China’s overcapacity cycle may ease by around 2030, 
• Debate about staying focused on simple, large‑volume commodity grades or moves into higher‑value or specialty polymers
• Climate‑driven demographic and economic pressures in the Global South could reshape demand
• Chinese competition in high‑value chemicals is intensifying
• Maintaining strong ties with China remains important today
• Massive crude oil‑to‑chemicals (COTC) ambitions are being moderated
• Partnerships and M&A are key tools for Middle East companies to secure technology, expand globally, and balance portfolios 

 In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior consultant John Richardson.
Download a special issue of ICIS Chemical Business with full coverage of the recent Gulf Petrochemical Association (GPCA) event. 

In Part 1, Helen speaks to Dr Michael Scriba about the current downturn in Europe's recycling sector and discusses topics such as:

• What factors contribute towards the current prolonged industry downturn
• Industry barries such as lack of approval for polyolefins for use in food contact applications
• Large-scale adoption unlikely until 2030
• Lack of a robust European collection and sorting system for many recycled polymers
• Key actions needed such as interim targets from 2026 to bridge the gap to 2030 goals

-          Ethylene, propylene capacity additions to accelerate, peak in 2027 

-          2028 bottom of the cycle, project delays could push this out to 2029

-          2000-2028 almost 75% of global capacity additions for key building blocks have been in China 

-          Final investment decision (FID)-to-on spec production can be only 2.5 years in China, so risk of further projects adding to the problem 

-          China additions may slow from 2030 due to peak carbon goals

-          Fight for survival for producers in Europe and Asia

-          To balance markets around 24m tonnes of ethylene closures required – equivalent to demand of Europe, Former USSR and Africa 

-          26m tonnes of propylene closures required - equivalent to capacity of Europe, Former USSR and Africa

-          Olefins demand at 30-year low in Europe, to 1990s levels, and will not revive

-          Signs of a more protectionist approach by Europe to save industrial base

-          Producers in China are also suffering from overcapacity, losing money

-          China exported more chemicals than the US or Middle East in Q2 2025

-          Trinseo closure, INEOS Quattro ratings downgrade spell more bad news 

-          Tariffs are altering decades of globalized trade patterns, pushing economies toward protectionism

-          Chemical prices and volumes have plummeted since Liberation Day on 2 April

-          Export-oriented business models under threat, particularly for US chemical companies

-          Average US tariffs surged from 2.4% to 28% before settling around 16.8%, the highest since 1935 during the Great Depression

-          Future strategy must focus on regional supply chains and production capabilities, reducing reliance on global exports

-          Rising geopolitical tensions and NATO uncertainties mean chemicals for defence could become a major growth area

-          Localized production will drive demand for recycling, acceptance of mass balance approach needed

-          Grupa Azoty Polyolefins bankruptcy shows vulnerability of European chemical projects in an oversupplied global market 

-          Regionalization trend already accelerating companies like BASF touting local capacity as a competitive advantage amid tariff uncertainty

-          Expect consolidation into fewer, larger producers in Europe, while smaller players may shut down or transition to specialties/low carbon production

-          Huge variation in forecasts for changes in population

-          Chemicals demand growth scenario planning is vital

-          Must take into account China’s success in technology and exports

-          Demand boost if export earnings are funnelled back into pension and healthcare reforms

-          ICIS base case 2025-2050 sees 2% polyolefins demand growth per annum, down from  10% between 1992 and 2024

-          More container traffic may return to the Suez Canal if ceasefire holds

Market participants are now prioritizing inventory management and 2026 contract talks, with fundamentals expected to remain largely unchanged through year-end.

Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter, Marion Boakye,  joins acrylate esters editor, Mathew Jolin-Beech, and glycol ethers editor, Cameron Birch, to discuss current conditions along the oxo-alcohols value chain.

-          ExxonMobil to close its 830,000 tonnes/year, ethane-fed Fife Ethylene Plant 
-          Questions over availability of North Sea ethane to feed the plant

-          Around $1 billion investment reportedly needed to revamp plant
-          Rising defence spending offers opportunities

-          Chemicals can switch to more technical and service-based products

-          INEOS preparing anti-dumping duties cases to protect its business

-          Europe must fight for its innovation advantage, other regions getting stronger

-          Aging population in Europe is a drag on demand

• BD Asia prices hit two-year lows in November due to heavy deep-sea imports from Europe, US, and South America.
• NE Asia received 250,000 tonnes of deep-sea cargoes in first three quarters of 2025 (up 100,000 tonnes versus 2024).
• Local production in China impacted by maintenance; BR futures may influence BD pricing sentiment
• European export prices to Asia dropped sharply, indications below naphtha cost
• January-July 2025 European BD exports to Asia four times larger than 2024 volumes
• Local European demand underperforming; suppliers extracting less BD
• Crude C4 (CC4) length persists despite low cracker rates
• Longer term CC4 availability in Europe diminished due to cracker closures
• Domestic US market steady to long; tire imports from Asia hurt US tire manufacturing.
• US BD production stable; supply long; prices near breakeven resulting in suppliers considering or undergoing co-cracking activities
• Minor Q1 turnaround in 2026 running concurrently alongside major cracker turnaround could keep supply and demand fundamentals balanced

Additional reporting from Industry Analysts Elaine Zhang and Ann Sun. 

Other headwinds include global overcapacity led by Asia and profitability struggles in Europe in the face of high costs which have led to rationalisation plans in Europe in the chain and broader industry.

Heidi Finch senior editor covering the European BPA and epoxy resins markets is joined by: Jane Gibson covering the acetone and phenol markets, Mat Jolin-Beech covering MMA,  Sam Lovatt covering PC and VIP guest Michele Bossi - analyst for the chain. 

-          Asia downstream markets not expected to recover until 2027/8

-          Low cost producers such as US, China, competing for market share

-          US tariffs, sanctions disrupting regional chemical markets

-          Moves in China, South Korea, Japan to close uncompetitive plants may help rebalance markets

-          China producers are exporting to other regions, such as Latin America

-          New China acetic acid plants add 10% to capacity in 2025

-          Downstream demand growth not keeping pace

-          Since the podcast was recorded on 3 November, a major plant has shut, driving up demand for imports into India, potentially widening arbitrage for Atlantic spot trades  

-          In China, retirement of older acetic acid plants unlikely to offset capacity addition in near future 

They also discuss the outlook for November, in what has been a disappointing year for many in the polymer business. 

They also discuss the outlook for November, in what has been a disappointing year for many in the polymer business. 

• Biofuels face competition from electrification and hydrogen
• Feedstock shortages hinder scale-up of biofuels
• Shell and BP cancel major biorefinery projects in Rotterdam, Netherlands
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) costs up to five times more than jet kerosene
• Regulatory mandates not rising quickly enough to stimulate demand
• Catalyst innovation boosts e-fuels efficiency, reduces energy use
• Industry needs incentives, clarity and global cooperation

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham and ICIS biofuels editor Nazif Nazmul interview Andreas Bachmeier, head of business development & energy transition at Clariant.

·         EO derivative production outside of EG to continue to trend upward into 2026

·         No expected turnarounds, planned outages for remainder of 2025

Demand, however, continues to be weak due to macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, keeping spot interest low. Glycol ethers and acrylate esters also saw minimal disruption, with stable pricing and subdued sentiment.

As 2026 contract talks begin, many buyers are considering shifting from long-term agreements to spot purchases, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and cautious market outlooks.

Acrylate esters editor, Mathew Jolin-Beech, is joined by oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter, Marion Boakye, and glycol ethers editor, Cameron Birch, to discuss current conditions along the oxo-alcohols value chain.

-          China’s economy is sputtering as country deals with excess domestic capacity and ruptured property sector

-          Global chemical markets likely to see more flows of cheap material from China, undermining prices and margins

-          Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) delegates in Mexico report rising pressure from Chinese, US imports 

-          ICIS data shows spreads near record lows in Asia, little hope of recovery to long-term averages 

• Downstream polymer margins stabilise after SM corrections
• 2026 contract discussions could progress slowly, greater focus on FOB China
• China's major role in Asia SM remains under spotlight amid further supply expansion

In this chemical podcast, Asia styrene editors Luffy Wu and Aviva Zhang discuss recent market developments, and the outlook ahead, following their observations in the industry conference held last week in Xi'an, China.

Samantha Wright, Sophie Udubasceanu and Alessia Succi Cimentini discuss the key takeaways from the conference and what awaits the European base oils industry. 

Markets editor Stephanie Wix and markets reporter Sam Lovatt unpack the highlights and major talking points from K in this podcast, focusing on Europe acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS), polystyrene (PS), expandable polystyrene (EPS), polycarbonate (PC), and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) markets.

• Asia ethylene will continue grappling with oversupply from new capacities in 2026
• Arbitrage flows could be here to stay with supply imbalances in southeast Asia
• Asia propylene wrestles with propane challenges, squeezed margins
• Availability of US propane a key concern for 2026
• 2025 Enmore Contract Season trade conference took place this week in Xi’an, China

Podcast by Josh Quah and Julia Tan

Editing by Will Beacham

• Indonesia is the world’s second-largest source of ocean plastic
• Project STOP targets unmanaged waste in Indonesia
• 13,300 tonnes of plastic collected since 2017 launch
• Project STOP aims to reach 2 million people 
• Local governments lead operations to ensure long-term viability
• Accenture’s digital tools improve efficiency and transparency
• Project STOP is open-source and designed for replication
  
  

-      AI will require vast amounts of cheap energy, Europe disadvantaged

-      EU energy policies have closed access to huge reserves of oil and gas

-      Europe has outsourced manufacturing, often to more polluting regions

-      CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) does not work, increases costs of imported raw materials

-      Tackle climate change through use of innovative materials, nuclear fusion

-      Tariffs are hurting any nascent economic recovery

-      Don’t expect strong economic bounce back in 2026

-      US reshoring will drive industrial and chemicals demand 

-      China-driven overcapacity will persist for several years

ICIS journalist Will Beacham interviews Peter Huntsman, CEO of Huntsman

Demand in both markets is expected to remain subdued into 2026, with sentiment for the coming year projected to closely mirror 2025 levels.

Topics discussed include:

• Subdued downstream demand
• Local supply and import flows
• Market expectations for 2026

Podcast by Marion Boakye and Gabrielle Jordan

• US buyers continue navigating supply needs, tariff cost sharing
• Asia prices fall to record lows as US-bound exports contract
• US short term fundamentals unchanged, though prices gradually move up
  
  

• New LAB capacities in China, India and Mideast slated for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026
• Fatty alcohols mid-cuts to see less uptake during festive season in India, China
• Impact of delay in EUDR on feedstock PKO yet to be seen

In this podcast, ICIS senior editors, Clive Ong and Helen Yan discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.

In this episode, European markets editor Zubair Adam for isocyanates and polyols and Rob Peacock, ICIS lead analyst, discuss sentiments captured during the conference.

FORECASTING UPDATE: Starting September 2025, ICIS will begin releasing its polyols and isocyanates 18-month forward price forecasts twice a month. Each market will be fully updated once a month, with a second update comprising revised price forecast charts plus a brief discussion highlighting market changes.

• Immediate spot price impacts across virgin and recycled PET
• Revised annual contract negotiations on several recent price increase initiatives
• Forecasted market trends of US R-PET
• Tariff management techniques applied by market participants

Correction:  The audio has been changed to "the US imported 3.27 billion lbs of PET/rPET in 2024" instead of "3.7 billion lbs".

-          Industry emerged stronger from previous crises and can do so again

-          Nascent recovery stifled by tariff war

-          Overcapacity is hurting industry everywhere

-          Europe closures mean distributors may adjust sourcing

-          Distribution industry is ripe for more consolidation

-          Leaders need a strong vision to attract the best talent

-          Private equity, state-funded bodies could buy assets, create national champions

 In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Christian Kohlpaintner, former CEO of Brenntag. 

Both markets are set to remain under pressure through 2025, with sellers facing headwinds from competitive import flows, ample domestic supply, and muted demand.

A meaningful rebound in consumption appears unlikely, as ongoing economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and fragile global trade continue to weigh on major downstream sectors, particularly automotive and construction.

Topics discussed include:

• Supply-demand dynamics
• Short-term outlooks
• Key themes ahead of EPCA

Podcast by Marion Boakye and Gabrielle Jordan

• President Trump’s tariff trade war
• Russia’s war with Ukraine
• China’s property bubble
• Potential for another Asian financial crisis
• Crude oil market convulsions

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

Meanwhile, ammonia availability continues to remain tight globally with planned and unplanned shutdowns.

Senior editors Chris Vlachopoulos and Sylvia Traganida discuss the latest developments in the markets and the short-term outlook.

Some questions answered during this episode:

• What is the current state of US and Asian R-PET markets? Are dropping US prices influencing Asian markets?
• How has the evolving tariff policy impacted US R-PET and PET imports via the 3907 HS code?
• What is the end of year outlook for US and Asian R-PET markets considering the weak environment at present?

Glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye and acrylate esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech about conditions in these markets and expectations for the near future.

-          Companies need to work out their pain points and ambition

-          Quantifying AI’s business value is a key challenge

-          Companies often run siloed projects without a unified strategy

-          Clean, trusted data is essential for AI success

-          AI should augment, not replace, human decision-making

-          Governance and ethical frameworks are critical safeguards

-          AI can reshape supply chains and customer engagement

-          Cultural change and workforce education are vital

-          AI raises questions about intellectual property

-          AI adoption in chemicals is still at an early stage

 In this Think Tank podcast,  ICIS journalist Will Beacham interviews AI entrepreneur and consultant Eleanor Manley, Sebastian Rau, director of advanced analytics for ICIS and Carlos Soares, senior vice president for data, analytics & AI at Brenntag. 

In this latest podcast, Asia biodiesel editor Evangeline Cheung and glycerine senior editor Helen Yan joins their Europe counterpart Nazif Nazmul to share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead.

• Firm palm oil fundamentals and regulatory support strengthen biodiesel market despite mixed demand
• Recent drop in glycerine spot prices linked to a slump in China's epichlorohydrin (ECH) market
• Market awaits further clarification on EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), impact on US tariff-led oleochemical trade follow

Biodiesel, which can be derived from vegetable oils, animal fats and other waste-based bio-feedstocks, is used as fuel in diesel engines.

Glycerine is mainly used in personal and oral care products such as skincare creams, toothpaste and mouthwash. It is also used in food products, either as glycerine directly or one of its derivatives such as glycerol monostearate.

·       Years of low inflation have distorted markets by allowing unprofitable companies to stay in business

·       Global trade terms clearer but the impacts to supply chains still unfolding

·       Demographic shifts continue to rise up policymaker agendas

·       Trade relationships and the path of AI development are key factors for the sector in future

·       At current trajectory, chemicals down-cycle could run for years

Topics discussed include:

• Supply and demand dynamics
• Increasing import reliance
• Potential US tariffs and their effects

Podcast by Gabrielle Jordan and Eashani Chavda 

• Industry faces structural—not cyclical—challenges
• Overcapacity and competition squeeze Europe
• Demand decouples from GDP, shrinking market size
• AI can boost efficiency and forecasting accuracy.
• Specialties and low-carbon products need careful thinking
• Global chemical companies withdraw from Europe
• Local chemical companies can gain market share via mergers & acquisitions (M&A)
• M&A and national champions may drive consolidation
• Defence sector offers immediate, well-funded opportunities

 In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Richard Carter from Carter Consultancy and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

• Weaker crude complex to weigh on costs
• Group II supply poised for length
• Demand weakness persists

-          Commodity chemicals may be produced mainly by large state-owned enterprises

-          Smaller, privately-owned companies may switch to high value composites, specialties, low-carbon chemicals

-          High-cost regions such as Europe could protect their essential commodity chemicals production

-          Protective measures need to be taken in next 3-6 months to rescue EU commodity chemicals

-          A lot more commodity capacity closures required to keep operating rates healthy

-          AI will have a massive impact on chemical companies and markets

-          AI will enable us to navigate and analyse increasingly chaotic markets

-          AI could drive job losses, disrupt economies

-          Climate change will alter seasonal and geographic demand patterns

-          Electronics, property, auto markets are depressed

-          Q2 chemicals results are very poor in all regions

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

• Why is this draft Implementing Decision on mass balance so important, and what does ‘fuel-exempt’ mean? 
• Will this increase investment in chemical recycling in Europe and what happens if other regions go for a ‘free allocation’ approach?
• What’s the impact on global operators working in different markets?
• Can recyclate made from post-consumer plastic waste placed on third country markets count towards recycled content targets?
• What does a ‘level playing field’ for Europe look like?
• Will there be a sudden acceleration of chemical recycling projects as Europe’s crackers close?
• Is chemical recycling the solution for mass-scale food contact for polyolefins in Europe by 2030?

ICIS senior editor manager Vicky Ellis and senior editor Ben Lake compare notes with ICIS market specialist Aswin Kondapally on how Europe and Indian markets match up in July, and what to expect in August.

Market factors discussed include:

• News regarding China’s economic policies boosted market sentiment short-term
• Global lack of downstream PET demand pulling MEG demand lower
• US EG supply disruptions due to tariffs
• Upcoming outages at Shell’s North America sites and BASF’s Belgium site

-          Closure of UK polymer recycling facilities has been a shock to the industry

-          European recyclers find it hard to compete against imports, more support for local recycling needed 

-          Regulations are helping recycling sector, but more action needed

-          Outlook for Europe recycling more positive than for base chemicals

-          Chemical plant closures remove good quality jobs which are tough to replace

-          Wilton, UK site is perfect for development of circular economy

-          EU-US 15% tariff deal removes threat of 30% but many questions remain

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews James McLeary, managing director for Biffa Polymers and ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown. 

Ongoing economic weakness and geopolitical uncertainty continue to dampen sentiment, with activity expected to slow further from late July into August as summer holidays begin.

Oxo-alcohols and their derivative markets are not expected to experience significant demand changes in H2 2025.

Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter Marion Boakye joins acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch to discuss current conditions along the oxo-alcohols value chain.

-          High oil prices stimulate more production, low prices less

-          Saudi Arabia and the US battle for market share

-          Global demand for oil is around 100 million barrels/day

-          Electric vehicles (EVs) have destroyed 2 million barrel/day of oil demand 

-          Globally around 20% of vehicle sales are EVs

-          Oil prices could fall to $40-$45/barrel by the end of the year

-          Oil demand growth weakest in 16 years

-          Low oil price is double-edged sword for chemical markets

 In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

-          Trade war shows global trading system is breaking down

-          Chemical industry could move back to a national or regional business model

-          Would be a return to pre-1990s industry structure

-          Europe has smaller chemical plants, ideal for regional markets

-          EU must now act fast to protect chemical and industrial value chains

-          China chemicals has been based on 6-8% GDP growth per year

-          Now real GDP growth is only 1-4%, according to unofficial estimates

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

Demand, pretty much across the board in this value chain as well as for many other products, remains stubbornly weak. 

Supply is ample in most cases as well, leading to stagnant markets, sluggish spot activity, and contracts doing the majority of the heavy lifting in the markets. 

In this podcast, Europe ICIS editors Jane Gibson (acetone and phenol), Heidi Finch (bisphenol A and epoxy resins), Sam Lovatt (polycarbonate), Mathew Jolin-Beech (methyl methacrylate) and ICIS senior analyst Michele Bossi (aromatics and derivatives) discuss current market conditions, and look forward to H2 2025.

• Ethylene support collapses with ethane resolution, new downstream demand to cushion drops 
• US tariff impact to trickle up from end use sectors 
• Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announces propylene futures, beginning 22 July

• Production in Iran, southeast Asia returns to normal
• US tariffs, seasonal factors to affect demand from downstream applications
• MTO run rates in China may be adjusted in July, margins may narrow

In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Doris He and Damini Dabholkar discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.

-          Dow to close cracker at Bohlen, Germany plus two other sites with loss of 800 jobs

-          More than 5 million tonnes/year of ethylene capacity now under threat in Europe

-          Industry still faces high energy costs, regulatory burdens, unfair competition

-          China will continue to add capacity at least to 2030

-          China chemical plants running at higher-than-expected operating rates

-          Importing ethylene and propylene can be expensive

-          Political support will be vital to save Europe’s chemical industry

-          New US tariffs may see two-tier chemical markets emerge in Asia

-          Uncertainty and chaos likely to persist

• China polypropylene flooding global market, outpacing domestic demand
• Chemicals industry as leading indicator warns of wider economic ill health
• Shutdown of plants in Europe is massive crisis
• Vietnam 20% tariff from US will weigh on both economies
• Risks of US cutting social security, international relief funding
• Key economies not as strong as presented
• Climate change needs to be a priority for businesses
• CEO beset with challenging conditions
• Working patterns reshaped by climate change
• Stark landscape provides opportunities for innovators to thrive

In this Think Tank podcast, Morgan Condon interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

In this podcast, ICIS analysts Patricia Tao and Lewis Unstead compare China and Europe’s approaches to decarbonizing heavy industry, and discuss the role of hydrogen in this transformation.

Acrylate esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech talks with glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch and oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye about conditions in these markets and expectations for the near future.

-          All Iran’s mono ethylene glycol (MEG), urea, ammonia and methanol facilities have been shut down 

-          For methanol this represents more than 9% of global capacity, for MEG it is 3%

-          Brent crude spiked from $65 to almost  $75/bbl, reports of attacks on gas fields and oil infrastructure

-          If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz this will severely disrupt oil and LNG markets 

-          Expect extended period of volatility and instability in the Middle East

-          European distributors brace for a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) world

-          Suffer prolonged period of poor demand, in tandem with producers, with no sign of an upturn

-          Global overcapacity driven by China, subsequent wave of production closures across Europe both a threat and opportunity for distributors

-          Suppliers and customers turn to distributors to help navigate impact of tariffs and geopolitical disruption
Click here to download the 2025 ICIS Top 100 Chemical DIstributors list.

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Dorothee Arns, director general of the European Association of Chemical Distributors and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. 

-          Chemical company earnings have been bottom-of-cycle since 2023

-          Leverage (borrowing) is high compared to historical levels

-          Low earnings increase pressure on leverage, raises risk of default

-          Fitch has downgraded more chemical companies over last 12-18 months

-          Extended trough in chemicals may lead to bankruptcies

-          Operating rates have not recovered as they did after Global Financial Crisis

-          Fitch expects gradual recovery from 2026

-          A lot more closures needed to rebalance market – could delay recovery

-          Ratings agencies look at company costs, strategies and compare to peers

-          Diversification of geography and product helps manage risk

In this ICIS Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Guillaume Daguerre who leads Europe chemicals for ratings agency Fitch, John Richardson from the ICIS market development team, ICIS Insight Editor Tom Brown and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.
Click here to register for the ICIS/European Association of Chemical Distributors (Fecc) distributors CEO round table on Monday 16 June. 

PET and R-PET market factors discussed include:

• US PET, R-PET demand outlook for peak summer season
• Canada’s anti-dumping duties (ADD) investigation on China, Pakistan
• R-PET, PET production and capacity changes
• Latin America PET protectionism continues

Key topics covered during the discussion include: 

• Revised down recycled content targets do not mean lower recyclate demand
• The impact on current and future investment decisions for both mechanical and chemical recycling 
• The importance of improving access to good quality feedstock
• The role of consumers and consumer pressure 
• Spreads between packaging and non-packaging grades remain high, particularly for recycled polyolefins 
• The impact of regulation on the US and European markets

-          Distributors can help communicate sustainability data up and down industrial value chains

-          Full lifecycle analysis is required to truly measure a product’s environmental footprint   

-          Vital to have standard measurements for carbon footprint

-          Chemical industry has a 25-year innovation cycle, more investment needed to accelerate this

-          Wave of low carbon products expected in next 2-3 years 

-          Azelis is sticking to its environmental targets

-          Customers drive demand for more low carbon products

-          Renewable energy will cut fossil content of distributor product portfolios

-          Smaller chemical companies drive low carbon innovation in Asia

-          Reshoring will drive national or regional chemical value chains

Better availability has facilitated further price pressure in May with few signs of a let up in the short term. Supply changes remain critical for price discovery.

Glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye and acrylate esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech about conditions in these markets and expectations for the near future.

-          Innovation breaks down silos, encourages collaboration

-          Enables industrial value chains to decarbonise

-          Chemical industry provides essential raw materials 

-          Awards are a chance to get external recognition for your innovations

-          Deadline is 12 June, entry is free and quick - click here for full details

-          China overcapacity, trade war is causing an unprecedented crisis

-          Polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), paraxylene (PX) in structural oversupply

-          Hopes for rebalancing by 2028-2030 as plants shut down, capacity build slows

-          Demand is flat but India is the exception – a beacon of growth for the region

-          Taiwan, Thailand struggle to compete against China, Middle East

-          Trade war will cause “cataclysmic” changes in global trade

-          Sustainability still seen as a growth driver, especially for polymers

-          Growing reliance on US ethane for chemical production in Asia

Senior editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake look at May’s price trends, how US-China trade relations are influencing sentiment in Europe, and are joined by senior editor Nadim Salamoun to discuss Trump's announcement regarding lifting sanctions on Syria, and how Pakistan’s market responded to its ceasefire with India.

They also highlight ICIS coverage from the latest Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Thailand, including how petrochemical demand may ramp up as US lifts Syrian sanctions, how South Korea is mulling petchem rationalization, and another ICIS podcast on Asian C2 players’ survival strategies.

In this latest podcast, global ammonia editor Sylvia Tranganida and Europe ACN editor Nazif Nazmul share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead.

• Ammonia players are expecting European demand from the nitrates market to pick up soon
• Availability is due to tighten with scheduled turnarounds in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia
• Ammonia prices globally are softening due to a lack of major demand
• Geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges dampen prospects of ACN derivatives demand resurgence
• Balanced-to-long ACN supply dynamics anticipated to endure

• Market gets boost from US-China trade breakthrough
• Early week increases of over $50/tonne eroded by crude drop at week's close
• Market cautious about sustainability of uptrend amid incoming European cargoes

In this chemical podcast, Asia benzene editor Angeline Soh discusses the situation in the market and some insights from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

• Feedstock cost competitiveness, ethane conversion considerations still on the table
• Consolidation a complex question, but looking more necessary for survival 
• SE Asia's new supply may cause supply-demand balance changes for Indonesia

In this chemical podcast, ICIS editor Josh Quah discusses some insights gleaned from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

In this latest podcast, Europe ABS market editor Stephanie Wix and markets editor for the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations ahead.

• Demand stability at a weak level expected to continue across 2025
• Macroeconomic challenges persist, players monitor US tariffs situation
• Impact of ongoing antidumping investigation on ABS imports from South Korea, Taiwan

ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products.

ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibres for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.

-          US-China tariff pause allows trade to resume between nations

-          Will benefit chemical companies around the world

-          But business leaders still need to plan for a more protectionist world

-          Trade resumption could see huge spike in demand, snarling up logistics

-          SABIC reportedly appoints banks to prepare for sale of European assets

-          Could make strategic sense from cost perspective

-          But would reduce footprint in the EU with its 450 million citizens
-          Upgrade and restart of SABIC’s Wilton cracker reportedly delayed 

• Around 1.5million tonnes/year new PVC supply may face start-up postponements
• Import discussions on ethylene slow pending clearer demand picture 
• PVC demand clouded by India-Pakistan tensions amid pre-monsoon season

In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Jonathan Chou and Josh Quah discuss their findings from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

• China lowers tariffs on US LPG for 90 days
• What this means for trade flows and pricing
• PDH run rates show signs of recovery
• Market reaction remains cautious

Related article: Our April analysis on the tariff hike

• PETCORE EUROPE's work in connecting the thermoforming industry
• Challenges of sorting and collection
• Impact of regulation on the thermoforming market
• The need of collaboratoin in the industry 
• New offerings and services that have come out of industry discussions

-          Low oil prices put money into consumers’ pockets

-          Petrochemicals demand will eventually benefit from lower oil prices 

-          Destocking down value chains initially masks demand boost

-          But trade war will likely dampen global economy, chemicals demand

-          China’s move to electric vehicles will reduce crude oil demand

-          Oversupply means oil price decline likely to continue

-          Trade war, demand trends will drive changes in China petrochemicals

In this podcast, senior editor Heidi Finch, who covers the Europe epoxy market and fellow senior editor Tarun Raizada, who covers the US epoxy market, share insights on key topics including tariffs, effects on sentiment, demand and profitability struggles.

• Europe epoxy sentiment diluted in April; as Trump tariffs add to demand caution; competition from South Korea and within Europe
• US epoxy price momentum slowed in April as players scrambled to assess impact on supply chain after duty/tariff fallout
• Profitability still a challenge; but benzene drop in Europe provides some relief
• Sentiment cautious in US moving forward as demand outlook far less favorable amid extended tariff uncertainty
• Trump tariffs cast a cloud over the downstream outlook, EU players hope trade deals will be reached

Podcast editing by Nick Cleeve

Joining senior editor manager Vicky Ellis on the podcast are senior editor Ben Lake, senior analyst for PE Lorenzo Meazza, ICIS consultant Les Bottomley, senior recycling analyst Egor Dementev and senior analyst Alex Tomczyk.

They discuss highlights from the conference, including examples of tariffs from US' history, how Europe's market views the tariffs headache, one speaker's view that AI could be “better at purchasing chemicals” than human buyers, and how polyolefins must get their head out of the sand on Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) rules or lose to other packaging.

-          US retailers fear empty shelves, fuelling inflation

-          Uncertainty, chaos is hurting business, dampening consumer sentiment

-          China chemicals demand growth could be negative in 2025

-          China may exempt $46 billion of US goods from tariffs including ethane, polyethylene (PE), styrene polymers 

-          Huge drop in May bookings for China imports through US ports

-          Power back to normal in Spain after nationwide outage on 28 April, chemical plants restarting

-          System should be resilient to adapt to swings in solar and wind production

Offtake from the coatings sector typically increases in spring, though sentiment is subdued as players struggle to plan amid ongoing global tariff uncertainty and ongoing wider economic weakness.

Oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate reporter Marion Boakye speaks to acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch about conditions down the oxo-alcohols value chain.

• Asia Melamine market grappling with weak demand and increasing supply
• Asia exports dropped in March but expected to flow into Europe May/June
• Reduced melamine supply in Europe offset by ongoing sluggish demand conditions
• No tariff impact on US melamine so far
• Global urea demand expected to slow from H2 May
• China not resuming urea exports yet despite the domestic season ending
• Subdued European Ammonia demand; waiting for nitrates market to pick up
• Natural gas TTF prices softened, but European fertilizer producers reluctant to ramp up production due low demand
  
  

In this chemical podcast, ICIS senior analyst Joey Zhou and analyst Seymour Chenxia discuss what changes Asian C3 market is going to embrace in the US tariff upheaval. And the topics will be focusing on:

 1.     Asia propylene price trends and forecasts

2.     China PDH run rate could fall below 60％ on surging costs

3.     Run rate for other production routes likely to rise

4.     Tariff impact to C3 derivatives and end-user consumption 

-          Cheap material being offered to Europe from Asian countries outside China

-          We are witnessing the breakup of the post-World War 2 Western Alliance

-          CEOs now have 90-day window of opportunity for scenario planning 

-          Uncertainty about tariffs makes it difficult to plan

-          Focus on locating markets and customers amid the chaos 

-          Major economies threatened with recession

-          Asset bubbles may be deflating 

-          Energy transition will have massive impact on chemicals

-          Tariffs could drive era of deglobalization

-          Chemicals journalism helps bring clarity to markets

-          Editorial content and analytics explain what is happening and why

-          Get past the press release and uncover the truth

-          Trusted sources of information are more important in an age of fake news

-          Listening, thinking, analysing are key journalistic skills 

-          Key turning point when China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001

• High volumes exported in Jan-Feb, slowdown from Mar onwards
• South Korea, possibly affected, as one of the major exports of aromatics to the US
• Global macroeconomic growth to witness a slowdown amid trade war

In this chemical podcast, ICIS market specialist Samuel Wong discusses the potential impact of US tariffs on the Asian aromatics markets.

• Impact of high feedstocks on recyclers' margins
• Impact of legislation across recycled polymers markets
• Updates on chemical recycling 
• Brands' positions on recycled content
• US tariffs - how will they impact Europe's recycled polymers markets? 

If you are interested in taking part in the Regulation Test and Learn mentioned by Alexandra during the podcast, please click here to register your interest and arrange an introduction and overview of the program. 

-          Tariffs will be bad news for the US and for the global economy

-          Europe polymers producers might get short-term relief if EU imposes tariffs on US polyethylene (PE)

-          US tariffs means China may now target other countries

-          Chemical industry will become more regional

-          If US becomes more isolated China could move closer to Europe, form new trading bloc

-          Europe’s chemical industry has its back against the wall

-          3.4% of European chemicals capacity has shut down 

-          EU attitude to energy pricing has reversed – they now want to reduce them

-          Chemical industry now has unprecedented access to high level Commissioners

-          Energy demand will soar – AI will use as much as chemicals

-          Electricity production needs to double to full electrify chemicals, other sectors

-          Survival of EU as a free trade zone is important

-          Chemicals CEOs can seize an opportunity if competitors close

In this Think Tank podcast, ICIS journalist Will Beacham interviews Cefic director general Marco Mensink, John Richardson from the ICIS market development team and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

• Weak demand, high inventories pressure prices to multi-year lows
• ADD final findings delayed; uncertainty around implementation persists
• Oversupply concerns rise with new capacities, trade barriers in focus

In this chemical podcast, ICIS market specialist Aswin Kondapally discusses recent market conditions, along with the near-term outlook.

• Mathew Jolin-Beech on acrylic acid (AA), acrylate esters, and methyl methacrylate (MMA)
• Jane Gibson on phenol, acetone, and refinery solvents
• Nick Cleeve on isopropanol (IPA), Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM), Methyl Isobutyl Ketone (MIBK), Methyl Ethyl Ketone (MEK)
• Heidi Finch on TIO2 and epoxy resins

-          Change of tone from new Commission

-          New strategic dialogue with chemicals on competitiveness

-          Well intentioned, but not enough detail on action plan

-          Conflict between competitiveness and Green Deal objectives 

-          Watering down or delaying existing legislation moves the goalposts, adds legal uncertainty

-          US has a patchwork of state-level and federal regulation

-          EU-US regulatory alignment is moving towards divergence

This podcast was recorded on 26 March. 

ICIS journalist Will Beacham interviews Thomas Delille and Peter Sellar of UK-US based law firm Squire Patton Boggs.

• Europe PO market chronically oversupplied, operating rates remain low
• Further shutdowns needed for PO market to come back into balance
• LyondellBasell may be able to meet demand from Europe, US plants
• Styrene market also looks to more shutdowns, but closure further reduces Europe capacity
• Domestic market increasingly dependent on imports, making the market increasingly fragile
• Shipping delays and plant outages having a more dramatic impact
• Still over 700,000 tonnes excess capacity in Europe PO market
• PO remains difficult to transport, infrastructure limited to allow imports to Europe
• Players starting to invest in import facilities, but remain in early stages
• POSM capacity continues to exceed demand, but PO a more of a driver than styrene
• Three other POSM units remain in Europe

• Need for improvement in collection and sorting capacity
• Importance of high quality waste to allow chemical recycling scale up
• Investment needed to address Europe's structural shortages of recycled material 
• Imbalance between EU Member States for infrastructure investment
• The financial and economic cost of not investing in, and dealing with EU waste

• US recycling capacity for select polymers for food-contact applications remains under 10%
• Sustainability-driven grades continue to see 30-200%+ premiums on PCR
• Tariffs, legislative changes amid top factors influencing market outlooks

In this podcast, ICIS insight editor Tom Brown speaks to Federico Mennella, managing director for industrials at investment bank DC Advisory, about the economic outlook and shifting trends in global chemicals dealflow.

• Rebound still expected but timing has been pushed back towards the end of the year on trade uncertainty, energy pricing and economic stability
• Strategic investors have war chests of cash and are looking to M&A in difficult organic growth environment
• Interest strong for North America chemical sector opportunities due to competitive energy pricing
• Questions over whether a financial investor could do something with Europe assets that the current owner cannot
• Private equity continues to drive M&A
• Increasing trend for bids for assets not in play
• More flexibility in transactions, with investors taking certain assets out of a wider package
• Global M&A activity has remained below pre-pandemic levels in size and volume
• Slight rebound occurring, multiples slightly lower
• Financing costs remain elevated compared to pre-COVID era
• Disconnect between buyers and sellers on valuations narrowing

• NE Asia C2 to see demand support from new PVC start-ups in China
• NE Asia C3 length to weigh on markets; import demand weak amid ample domestic supply
• New capacity start-ups in China to lengthen supply in olefins markets in Q2

• Asia MDI, TDI prices fall after Lunar New Year holiday 
• Ample Asian supply to keep buyers in China, SE Asia cautious 
• Post-Ramadan recovery in Middle East to be capped by sufficient availability

In this podcast, ICIS markets editor Shannen Ng and markets reporter Isaac Tan discuss market conditions and expectations for the near future.

-          Need to maintain robust national or regional supply chains may benefit chemical industry in Europe, which is threatened with closures

-          German defence/infrastructure spending boost could be 2% of GDP, larger than increase linked to German reunification, post-war Marshall Plan

-          Rising defence spending in Europe would help boost electricity demand significantly, estimates vary from 7%-30%

-          Data-driven technology for defence would also raise electricity demand

-          Will raise demand for gas and renewable-based power

-          Europe will need to become more self-sufficient in energy, driven by renewables

Acrylate esters editor Mathew Jolin-Beech speaks with glycol ethers editor Cameron Birch and oxo-alcohols and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye about conditions in these markets and expectations for the near future.

Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake are joined by senior analysts Lorenzo Meazza (PE) and Emiliano Basualto (PP) to consider February trends, what to expect in March and the rest of 2025.

Last but not least, they look at different scenarios that US tariffs will affect PE and PP.

They touch on articles including US PE exports most vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs, Saudi plans for a new Sipchem/LyondellBasell mixed feed cracker and Orlen’s Q4 petchem operating loss improving.

PET market factors discussed include:

• Tariffs on Mexico and Canada imports and the impacts to the US PET market
• Supply and demand balance going into the peak summer season
• China’s antimony bans on exports to the US and the impact that will have on PET production

• NE Asia propylene prices cool on weaker demand amid lower affordability levels
• Oversupply a central issue in northeast Asia for PO makers 
• Tight SE Asia propylene supply likely to continue amid shutdowns

In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Julia Tan speaks with markets editor Shannen Ng to discuss market conditions and expectations for the near future.

• Member states urged to lower energy bills by cutting taxes to legal minimums
• Improve infrastructure and connections to ease flow of renewable electricity
• €100 billion to support EU-made clean manufacturing, but questions over how chemicals can access the money
• Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) for energy-intensive industries to partner with renewable energy providers
• More measures against unfair foreign competition
• Measures to boost circular economy and recycling
• But nothing game-changing or radical enough 

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS senior energy reporter Gretchen Ransow, ICIS chief news correspondent for Europe, Tom Brown and Nigel Davis from the ICIS market development team.

Isocyanates Europe editor Zubair Adam and Asia editor Shannen Ng show case the key developments.

Glycol ethers report editor Cameron Birch speaks to oxo-alcohols editor and butyl acetate editor Marion Boakye, acrylate esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech about the current conditions in these markets and expectations for the near future.

-          Europe is in the “last chance saloon” to halt deindustrialisation

-          Europe industry burdened by high cost of energy, CO2

-          Improved connectivity for renewable power will be essential for chemicals

-          Reform of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) welcome if it really protects local manufacturing 

-          Huge investment needed to make a low carbon future a reality

-          ICIS forecasts depressed operating rates for global ethylene, propylene to 2035

-          EU should focus on increasing tariff barriers, defence spending

-          Clean Industrial Deal should be welcomed as a direct response to Antwerp Declaration 

-          Deal will be published on Wednesday 26 February 

• Breaking down European legislation (Single Use Plastics, Packaging & Packaging Waste, End of Life Vehicles)
• Impact on collection, sorting and quality of plastic waste in Europe and beyond
• Europe's competitiveness in the recycling space and how the economics compare
• How regulation may be a barrier for imports into the EU
• What's the future of plastics if the regulation does not work?

• European PC under a lot of pressure by low demand and Asian imports as all suppliers try to get a piece of the small cake
• Epoxy, BPA demand subdued, but EU ADDs for epoxy to bring some opportunities
• Low demand thwarts phenol market, with acetone yet to offer any real margin support
• Europe MMA facing growing pressures from rising production costs and stubbornly weak demand

Podcast editing by Mathew Jolin-Beech

-          Collective effort will bring down the cost of sustainable solutions

-          GIC is spin off from the World Economic Forum 

-          Major chemical company members include BASF, SABIC, Clariant, Covestro, LyondellBasell, Mitsubishi, Syensqo, LG Chem

-          Automotive plastics recycling is a key focus

-          Fully decarbonised car would only add $900 to final price

-          On average decarbonising only adds 2-4% to final price of most goods

-          However decarbonization costs rise steeply up the value chain

-          GIC aims to grow geographically and along industrial value chains

ICIS journalist Will Beacham interviews Charlie Tan, CEO of the GIC and Lars Kissau, president of BASF’s Net Zero Accelerator.

In this podcast, ICIS hydrogen analysts Patricia Tao and Anita Yang discuss how these developments could gradually shift the global hydrogen market’s center of gravity over the next three to five years.

-          More than 11 million tonnes of European chemicals capacity slated to close

-          Decline can be reversed with strong EU political action  

-          Simplify bureaucracy, lower energy costs, finance low carbon transition

-          EU needs to stimulate demand for low carbon products, create level playing field against global competition 

-          Time to turn words into action through EU Clean Industrial Deal, new chemicals strategy

-          Chemicals CEOs in Europe need to examine their portfolios to identify where they can win against global competitors

-          Europe has a lot to offer – cutting edge technology, talent

-          Region needs a strong economy and that is only possible with strong chemical industry

They touch on LyondellBasell's Q4 results,  Dow CEO Jim Fitterling's downbeat view on demand, early February market trends and ICIS' article about the SE Asia PE plant shutdowns deemed necessary for rebalancing.

Podcast edited by Will Beacham

In this latest podcast, Europe ABS report editor Stephanie Wix and her counterpart on the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead.

• Geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges dampen prospects of demand resurgence 
• Balanced-to-long supply dynamics anticipated to endure 
• Players assess impact of EU ADD investigation on ABS imports from South Korea, Taiwan

ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products.

ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibres for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.

• Improving the supply chain for recycled PET
• Getting access to good-quality feedstocks
• Deposit Return Schemes (DRS) growing in Europe
• Impact of high feedstocks on R-PET prices
• Spreads between virgin PET and R-PET

-          Businesses need stability, certainty to make investment decisions

-          Trade war could drive more national/regional industrial and chemical supply chains 

-          But reshoring can be very expensive and time-consuming

-          New technologies such as 3-D printing and AI support local production

-          Export-dependent US chemicals have a lot to lose from a trade war  

-          US exported more than 10 million tonnes of polyethylene (PE) to Europe in 2023

• A widening spread between approved and unapproved Group III material
• A wave of new capacity, with plants particularly in Singapore and India adding competition to Group I
• A tight supply of Brightstock and shifting spread between domestic and export volumes
• The US dollar rally making Euro purchases more costly
• Potential for US tariffs on Canada and Mexico and possible impact on crude flows

ICIS experts Samantha Wright, Mike Conolly and Sophie Udubasceanu discuss the top five drivers to watch in 2025.

Base oils are used to produce finished lubes and greases for automobiles and other machinery.

-          It could take 50 years for women to achieve gender equality 

-          Women under 30 have closed the gender pay gap

-          But inequality increases at more senior levels

-          Burn out is a major problem for female executives

-          Companies with diverse workforces out-perform  

-          Women deterred from choosing roles which are male-dominated

-          Chemical industry only has 30% female workforce globally 

-          More flexible working arrangements very important 

-          Women in Chemicals aims to help females achieve their ambitions

Players were hoping for reasonable restocking activity this month, following the destocking period that took place in late Q4 2024, but spot activity has been below expectations for many players down the value chain.

Oxo-alcohols & butyl acetate reporter Marion Boakye speaks to acrylate esters reporter Mathew Jolin-Beech and glycol ethers reporter Cameron Birch about conditions down the oxo-alcohols value chain.

-          Report aims to guide chemicals to 2050 EU Green Deal goal of climate neutrality

-          Takes into account Scope 1, 2, 3, embedded carbon and end of life emissions

-          Modelling covers many types of technologies 

-          Industry will compete with other sectors for access to scarce resources

-          Report models the huge level of investment required 

Click here to download Cefic’s report “The Carbon Managers: Modelling Possible Pathways for the EU Chemical Sector’s Transition Towards Climate Neutrality and Circularity with iC2050.”

ICIS interviews Florie Gonsolin, director industrial transformation projects at Cefic.

In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Ai Teng Lim and industry analyst Elaine Zhang come together to discuss the factors moving prices and to take a peek into what may lie ahead for downstream demand. 

• Domestic China prices surge on supply factors, raising imports too
• Uncertainties prevalent on whether downstream demand will hold out
• Supply outlook uneven between China and wider Asia

Some of the key takeaways included:

• Global capacities are set to grow rapidly in the next 5 years
• It’s unclear how the rise of bioplastic packaging will impact the goals set in Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulations
• Bioplastics are only one of a range of tools needed to improve the sustainability of plastics

-          Gaza ceasefire could stop Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping

-          Route via Cape of Good Hope takes 10 days longer than Suez Canal

-          Reopening Suez would add 10 days of chemicals inventory to the market

-          Europe would be open to more Asia exports

-          Freight rates could fall as container capacity is freed up  

-          ‘Stunning’ levels of overcapacity expected in China in 2025

-          New Cefic report highlights need for new Europe industrial deal for chemicals

-          Global overcapacity will get worse this year, ICIS Supply & Demand data shows

-          Depressed demand set to continue

-          Donald Trump tariffs may change trade flows, fuel inflation

-          China economy will continue to struggle

-          Disinformation will make it difficult to navigate trends

-          Look for pockets of growth from low carbon agenda 

• Ethylene loadings from US in December continue to favour southeast Asia destinations
• More intra-Asia tradeflows between northeast and southeast Asia expected for H1 2025
• Increasing ethane competitivity and demand may curtail US ethylene exports to Asia

• Weak demand from downstream plasticisers sector
• Upstream support from propylene unlikely
• Demand recovery to take some time

In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Julia Tan speaks with ICIS analyst Lina Xu to share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead next year.

-          Plants in Europe operating at technical minimum levels

-          Minimal stocks held amid plentiful supply

-          Demand poor across most end uses, packaging stronger

-          Europe will see more PE imports as global overcapacity grows

-          More polymer plant closures are likely in Europe and other high-cost regions

-          US has more to lose from trade war as it is a major exporter of PE to China

-          Trade flows could change dramatically if tariff walls go up

-          Supply/demand imbalance may take up to nine years to correct

-          Consumer demand will drive improvements in plastic waste management

-          Chemical companies need to reconnect with brands/consumers

-          We will move out of the current ‘trough of despair’ about recycling 

-          End of globalization may mean national/regional treaties are more effective

-          UN Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee concluded in Busan, South Korea, on 1 December, with no definitive agreement

-          Around 100 countries backed proposals, with a small number of hold-outs

• China inventory levels could remain limited near term; domestic supply increases on plant restart
• Bearish demand outlook to weigh on Asia market
• Asia, Europe annual contract discussions tough
• Heavy Q1 US turnaround could limit imports into Asia/Europe and bolster discussions

•  Ongoing issues over a UN plastics treaty highlights divide between major producers and smaller players
• Upcoming US tariffs may change trade flows, dynamics for Middle East
• Global oversupply remains in focus as China's demand growth slows

Focus is now on managing inventory targets into year end with destocking already underway. The autumn in general has been slower than many had hoped.

Glycol Ethers report editor Cameron Birch speaks to Oxo-Alcohols editor Nicole Simpson, Acrylate Esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech and Butyl Acetate editor Marion Boakye about the current conditions in these markets and expectations for the near future.

Europe plasticizers editor Nicole Simpson speaks to US editor Daniel Lopes about the future of the plasticizers market against a backdrop of falling US feedstock costs, growing US protectionism and economic challenges.

-          Middle East oil and gas companies want to push liquids-to-chemicals as demand for transport fuels declines

-          Aramco aims to convert around 4 million bbl/day of crude oil into chemicals by 2030 versus about 1 million barrels/day currently

-          Demand growth will not be sufficient to meet rising supply 

-          More closures will be needed to balance the market

ICIS senior editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake weigh up what's behind the November trends, how forex and logistics might be affecting the markets, and what’s coming for December.

They also discuss ICIS coverage of European PE, PP players adapting value propositions in the face of an evolving market, and Think Tank’s podcast episode: Trump trade war will drive end of globalisation for chemicals.

Editing by Will Beacham

In this latest podcast, ICIS editors Meeta Ramnani and Marta Fern share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead.

• Seasonal destocking to weaken buying interest further in December
• Demand could stay low in 2025; recovery depends on macroeconomic factors
• Q1 2025 could bring restocking; its magnitude unclear
• Asian adipic acid import volumes likely to increase in Q1

-          Europe spot electricity prices up 76% this year, ICIS TTF gas price up 40%

-          Fear drives markets more than fundamentals which remain bearish

-          Demand is reduced compared to five-year average, supply plentiful

-          Above average temperatures forecast into December in Europe

-          Gas storage around 90%, well above 5-year average

-          New sources of US, Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) due onstream in 2025

-          Renewable energy will ramp up quickly in Europe

-          Donald Trump may increase LNG supply by unfreezing projects

-          US-China trade war would drag on economic growth

-          World may return to more national and intra-regional trade

-          Trump could help drive the end of deglobalization

-          Development of more local, circular chemical supply chains

-          Chemicals Q3 financial results show some volume growth

-          But industry still in the bottom of a trough 

-          Lack of growth from automotive, construction 

In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Julia Tan speaks with senior analyst Shariene Goh to share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead next year.

• High freight rates likely to remain key challenge to PP exports, which could weigh on propylene demand 
• Southeast Asia to take price direction from northeast Asia
• Net deficit for Indonesia despite Indonesia's LINE project

• Unexpected positivity despite challenging market environment 
• The need for strong collaboration through the recycling chain
• Regulatory uncertain still a core challenge for the recycling market 

Net import volumes may plunge in the short term because of overseas plant turnrounds and rising domestic supply, but whether this could sustain still depends on overseas plant operations and import arbitrage opportunities. 

• Bottled beverage sector made up 15% of all US packaging revenue in 2023.
• US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) production to remain 3 billion lbs short of domestic demand in 2025.
• US polystyrene (PS) production has been impacted by outages since July 2024.
• US polypropylene (PP) prices have been volatile, with price movements 11 out of the last 12 months. 
• US polyethylene (PE) inventories are the highest they have been since May 2023.
• US recycled PET (R-PET) market facing onslaught of imports. 2Q2024 PET scrap import volumes were above 125 million lbs.

In this latest podcast, Europe ABS report editor Stephanie Wix and her counterpart on the Europe ACN report, Nazif Nazmul, share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead.

• Macroeconomic challenges expected to continue limiting ABS and ACN demand through Q4 into Q1 2025
• ABS and ACN availability likely to remain lengthy
• Import-led ABS competition could increase in Q1 2025

ABS is the largest-volume engineering thermoplastic resin and is used in automobiles, electronics and recreational products.

ACN is used in the production of synthetic fibres for clothing and home furnishings, engineering plastics and elastomers.

-          Chemical companies driven more by long-term trends than government policy

-          Consumer demand for more sustainable products will drive chemical markets

-          US relies heavily on exports for its low-cost polymers

-          Donald Trump promises to hike tariffs by 10-20% on all imports, 60% on Chinese imports

-          Trump may ease US chemicals regulation, Kamala Harris may tighten

-          Questions over investments in the green transition

-          China-driven overcapacity could imbalance global supply/demand until 2030

-          Need for large-scale capacity closures to balance market

-          Companies can choose to focus on commodities or become specialty/low carbon players

-          CEOs waking up to the need for a radical examination of their assets and strategies

-          A trickle of announcements about closures and restructurings turning into a flood

-          Leaders such as BASF, Dow, LyondellBasell, Versalis take bold steps to reduce their commodity footprint in Europe

This is the audio podcast version of a special ICIS Think Tank Live webinar recorded on 30 October. 

Sluggishness is expected to persist throughout the remainder of Q4, influenced by various factors including wider economic weakness, geopolitical tensions, and end-of-year destocking.

Butyl acetate reporter Marion Boakye speaks to oxo-alcohols reporter Nicole Simpson, glycol ethers reporter Cameron Birch and acrylate esters reporter Mathew Jolin-Beech about market dynamics down the oxo-alcohols value chain.

Senior editor Heidi Finch, who covers the Europe epoxy market, and fellow senior editor Tarun Raizada, who covers the US epoxy market, share insights on key topics discussed at a recent industry event, current market sentiment and near-term expectations.

• Markets muted in Q4 so far, still fragile climate
• US market subdued ahead of November duty announcements
• US players in wait-and-watch mode, no major supply/demand forecasting taking place
• Slight degree of optimism in US epoxy for 2025, but year-over-year growth expectations tempered
• EU likely to gain share into 2025, due to the ADD case
• EU macroeconomics improving slowly, but fundamental recovery likely to take longer, geopolitics major risk

Podcast editing by Will Beacham

Europe ICIS editors Jane Gibson (acetone and phenol), Heidi Finch (bisphenol A and epoxy resins), Meeta Ramnani (polycarbonate), Mathew Jolin-Beech (methyl methacrylate) and ICIS senior analyst Michele Bossi (aromatics and derivatives) discuss current market conditions, in view of residual macro and geopolitical headwinds, although easing interest rates and the trade defence investigation for epoxy brings some hopes and opportunities in Europe.

Listen in as they dive into various topics regarding material recovery facilities (MRFs), extended producer responsibility (EPR), recycled content brand committments, chemical recycling and more.

• Gas shortages in Q4 lead to expectations of lower supply
• China market sees correction after post-holiday exuberance
• Downstream demand tepid, expected to see slight recovery in Q4

In this chemical podcast, ICIS markets editor Damini Dabholkar and senior analyst Ann Sun discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.

-          World’s first electrically-heated steam cracker at demonstration stage

-          Cuts CO2 emissions by up to 95% compared with natural gas-fired crackers

-          Linde, BASF, SABIC win shows strength of partnerships

-          Challenges include obtaining sufficient renewable energy, financing for scale up

-          Financial risks can be reduced by converting one furnace at a time

They explore discussion topics heard at the event last week, from the highest concerns to the lowest expectations. They also explain the clash of pessimism and optimism between markets including acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), polycarbonate (PC), polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), and also engineering plastics polyacetal (POM) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT).

• Upcoming regulation in deep-sea fails to support Asia r-PET exports
• Asia r-PE, r-PP remain traded mostly in domestic markets
• Investments into recycling continue across Asia despite weak demand 

In this chemical podcast, ICIS senior editor Arianne Perez discusses recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.

• Waste collection challenges and developments  
• ICIS study on penetration rates of recycling in the wider virgin polymer market
• Chemical Recycling and its impact on the market
• Investment in recycling for low carbon solutions
• Prices of feedstocks impacting the recycled polymers chains 

3rd ICIS Recycled Polymers Conference | Europe

Hotel Palace Berlin, Germany | Conference: 7 November Training: 6 November

You will be able to hear from out ICIS experts on the following session:

• Set the scene with ICIS: The European plastics recycling market landscape
• Panel discussion: Waste collection challenges and developments
• ICIS insight on pricing trends for plastics, mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil

To discover more and register you place click here > https://events.icis.com/website/11605/home/ 

• Players may take steps to hedge against unpredictability of deep-sea cargoes
• China’s new capacity takes shape, but lengthy domestic supply may not yet spillover to the import-export market
• Greater interest from producers to study the feasibility of incorporating ethane as part of cracker feedstock slate 

In this Think Tank podcast, Tom Brown interviews Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting, Katherine Sale,  ICIS head of editorial strategy, and Chris Barker, senior editor covering PVC and caustic soda, on impressions from the EPCA assembly.

In this episode, market editors Zubair Adam (MX) and Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez (PX, OX) along with Rob Peacock, ICIS lead analyst for aromatics, share the sentiment captured after talking with various market players at the conference.

Offer is run on a first come first serve basis. 

Topics covered include:

• Innovations driving plastic recycling in Europe
• Chemical recycling technology evolution
• Impact of legislation and regulation 
• Challenges facing the recycling industry 

They discuss the clash of pessimism and optimism for acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS), the changing European landscape for polycarbonate (PC) given ADNOC's recent offer for Covestro, and pressure from cheap imports for PE and PP and engineering plastics polyacetal (POM) and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT).

Fakuma runs from 15-19 October.

• Impact of regional conflict on spot Group I supply from Iran to emerge
• Group II export offers from the US awaited, to offer clearer near-term market direction
• Persistent crude volatility may temper base oils uptake
• Currency woes in Africa may undermine finished lube exports

In this chemical podcast, ICIS editor Damini Dabholkar and senior editor manager Veena Pathare discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in UAE.

-          Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) to acquire Covestro for equity value of €11.7 billion

-          ADNOC diversifies downstream from oil and gas

-          Covestro global leader in polycarbonate (PC) and polyurethenes (PU)

-          PC and PU struggles with poor demand from automotive, construction

-          Covestro operating profit slumped from around Euros3bn in 2021 to near euros 1bn in 2023

-          Covestro boasts strong sustainability-related product portfolio 

-          More M&A likely in Europe petrochemicals thanks to cheap bottom of cycle valuations  

-          Oil prices may collapse to $30/bbl if OPEC goes for market share

Connect with ICIS at EPCA 2024 in Berlin. ICIS will host a presentation at 2pm on Wednesday 9 October at Potsdam I, InterContinental Hotel. 

-          Market updates on methyl ethyl ketone (MEK), methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK), isopropanol (IPA), phenol, acetone, toluene, mixed xylenes, glycol ethers and propylene glycol ethers, butyl acetate and ethyl acetate.

-          Trade flows and impact of freight rate movements

-          Overcapacity versus low demand levels

-          Upcoming maintenance programmes 

In this episode, Jane Massingham talks to editors Nick Cleeve, Jane Gibson, Zubair Adam, Cameron Birch and Marion Boakye.

-          Market updates on propylene, ethylene, polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE), monoethylene glycol (EG), ethylene oxide (EO), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), acrylonitrile, monopropylene glycol (MPG) and oxo-alcohols

-          Trade flows and impact of freight rate movements

-          Overcapacity versus low demand levels

-          Upcoming cracker turnarounds 

In this episode, Jane Massingham talks to editors Nel Weddle, Vicky Ellis, Melissa Hurley, Chris Barker, Nazif Nazmul and Nicole Simpson.

·       Post-summer demand disappointing across the board

·       General availability sufficient although individual producers face some supply constraints 

·       Players’ expectations for 2025 closely linked to outlook for general economy and key construction and automotive industries 

Oxo-Alcohols editor Nicole Simpson speaks to Acrylate Esters editor Mat Jolin-Beech, Glycol Ethers editor Cameron Birch and Butyl Acetate editor Marion Boakye about the current market and expectations for early 2025. 

-          China’s economy at a turning point, possibility of recession in 2025

-          New government stimulus measures announced today

-          Lack of domestic demand makes China reliant on export-driven growth

-          Other markets increasingly resistant to Chinese exports, put up trade barriers

-          Further slowing of China’s economy will increase global overcapacity pressure

-          Chemical companies need to plan for scenario of stagnant China economy

• Volatile gas prices illustrate a finely balanced market
• Tight ammonia availability; some scheduled maintenances expected
• Unexpected gas related shutdowns in Egypt short-lived; India urea tenders boost sentiment
• Certain factors support global urea market despite thin demand in Europe 
• Demand in China showing signs of recovery before National Day holiday (1-7 October)
• China's average melamine operating rates hovering around 60%, market to track urea costs 

Additional reporting from market reporter Joy Foo, Senior Editor Sylvia Traganida, Deputy managing editor Deepika Thapliyal, Markets Reporter Joy Foo and Energy Market Reporter Lars Hoeylo Kjoellesdal.

Meanwhile, east Asian and south Asian linear alkylbenzene (LAB) markets remained in the doldrums despite expectations of an improvement in September. The weak performance of the crude oil and upstream markets since July have weighed on sentiment and led to caution among buyers.

• Limited spot availability to lend support to the mid-cuts C12-14 prices near term
• Heavy fatty alcohol plant shutdown schedule in September-November in Asia
• LAB market could potentially improve on upstream revival
• Elevated mid-cut alcohols market could prompt switching to LAB

In this chemical podcast, ICIS editors Helen Yan and Clive Ong discuss recent market conditions with an outlook ahead in Asia.

In this latest podcast, European PE and PP editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Lake take stock of the year so far and are joined by ICIS senior polymer analysts Lorenzo Meazza and Umberto Torresan to pick out key themes for the rest of 2024 and 2025.

They touch on the challenge of unpredictable events, changing demand trends, unplanned disruption, as well as the huge number of plants coming online around the world.

-          Global capacity additions far outstrip demand growth

-          China, Middle East, US likely to continue expansions

-          China drove the petrochemical supercycle, but no longer

-          China chemicals demand growth likely only 2-4%/year 

-          Prospect of global deflation

-          Europe can focus on specialty chemicals, other niches